Ahira's Hangar

Last weekend, this weekend, and the next two weekends will be the main prep races in North America and Europe for the Breeders Cup, to be held the first Friday and Saturday in November at Churchill Downs in Kentucky.

One of Europe's most prestigious races, the Arch de Triumphe, was run today at Longchamps in France and it was won in record time by a longshot three year old German filly named Danedream!

And she is supposedly coming over for the Breeders Cup! (Though I do not know if she will run in the Turf Championship or the Filly/Mare Turf?)

In fact, the first three finishers in the race were fillies!

The leading contender for the Classic - not the Ladies Classic but the Classic - is a four year American filly named Havre de Grace. She has only been defeated once this year - at 10 furlongs by about two inches to a multiple grade I winner who was carrying less weight than Grace. The third place horse in that race finished about 18 lengths back.
Here is her one defeat this year:

Notice that this is a time which would win most Kentucky Derbies AND most Breeders Cup Classics!
Her latest two Grade I victories (one over males):

and


Havre de Grace's sire was a Horse of the Year and Breeder's Cup Classic winner named Saint Liam. He only sired one crop of foals and then had a catastrophic accident at the breeding farm and had to be euthanized - a terrible tragedy for such a young and healthy stallion. In that crop he had two very good foals - and the colt, Buddy's Saint, broke down in training and also had to be euthanized. So his legacy as a champion rests now on this one big beautiful filly - and since the only colt good enough to be given a chance at stud died, his genetic legacy must go on through his daughters.

Saint Liam's sire was Saint Ballado. He was a Canadian bred champion who died much too early - euthanized because of cancer at age thirteen. He left behind two very promising stallion sons in Saint Liam and in another Grade I winner, Sunriver. While he had sired many other stakes winning colts, none of them panned out as sires. Saint Liam died in an accident after siring one crop of foals - and Sunriver was found dead in his paddock after siring only two crops. Another tragic early death for a young stallion from this family line!

Like Saint Liam, Sunriver has left behind a very good filly as his legacy. She is the undefeated two year old named Weemissfrankie. Weemiss just won a grade I on California, and will be running in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies.


It's been a tough year for American horses. The leading turf colt, the magnificent four year old gray Paddy O'Prado, had a career ending injury in his first start of the year. The leading three year old turf colt, Banned, was gravely injured in a morning workout - he survived the breakdown and the surgery, but had to be euthanized when he developed laminitus. The leading candidate for the Ladies' Classic, Blind Luck, will not be going to the Breeders Cup, as she inexplicably ran terribly in her last race. Something is wrong, but they have not pinpointed it yet. The Triple Crown trail was littered with injured colts, including the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, who was only recently cleared for physical activity after surgery. Last year's Ladies Classic winner, Unrivaled Belle, had a freak accident and had to be retired from the resulting injury.

On the other hand, some colts are starting to come back. Uncle Mo has survived a very serious case of hepatitis. To Honor and Serve just won the Pennsylvania Derby in record time, and might be one to watch in the Classic.

The best American born turf filly, Winter Memories, will be heading towards a race at Keeneland rather than any of the Breeders Cup races. It is a shame because she has one of the most impressive wins I have ever seen in her last start:


Right now it is still early to think too hard about any of the races. It is unsure in which race many of the leading horses will run. Will Uncle Mo go in the Dirt Mile or Classic? Will The Factor run in the Sprint or Dirt Mile? Will Shackleford try the Dirt Mile or will they throw him away in the Classic - a race he just isn't bred to compete in? Will Acclamation go in the Classic or the Turf? How many European horses will be coming over and which races will they run in?

Well, this year's parade of bad news continues.

An Irish bred son of Galileo named Cape Blanco had flown over from Europe three times this year and won a key Grade I turf race each time. He was likely to have been the favorite for the Breeder's Cup Turf.

He has a fracture and is now retired.


Hopefully he will be OK and will have a long and successful second career at stud!

So that is two probable favorites - Cape Blanco in the Turf and Blind Luck in the Ladies' Classic - out due to their final prep races.

This coming weekend will be important preps for the east coast two year olds. I will probably try to post some more after those races (the west coast babies had their big prep races last weekend. For the California girls it looks like WeeMissFrankie and for the boys it looks like Drill and Creative Cause are the ones to watch).

The thing is, though, the two year old Breeders Cup winners almost seem to be cursed as a group. They rarely do well as three year olds, when the late bloomers catch up and often surpass them...

The injuries are still coming, and more horses drop out by the day, it seems.

The best races seem to be the Classic - with a true wild card in the New Zealand super horse So You Think. He is unquestionably the best horse in the world over the 10 furlong (mile and a quarter) distance - but he has a pure grass pedigree and no one knows how he will handle the dirt. To tell you how good this guy is he once ran in three Austrailian grade I races in 10 days - winning the first two at 10 furlongs and finishing a close third in the third race after leading most of the way - at two miles. He has also won Grade I's in Europe, where he is now based. It is a very good field - the top mare Havre de Grace, two Belmont winners, and three year old stars uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, and To Honor and Serve. Not to mention Game On Dude, the Santa Anita Handicap winner this year. Strong field, with nearly all the entrants having a good chance and either already proven at the distance or bred to run the distance.

Another good race should be the Dirt Mile with the Factor and Preakness winner Shackelford.

In the two year old fillies look out for Our Miss Aurelia, Weemissfrankie, and Grace Hall. All three are undefeated and look very good.

In the two year males look for Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill - and in his first real test a colt that looks like he might be a monster in Hansen, who has a dirt pedigree but has been running on polytrack against inferior competition to the others I mentioned. Who knows what he can do on dirt and against better colts?

Others to watch include Alpha, Dullahan, and Take Charge Indy. What's really great is that most of the leading colts participating this year have potential classic pedigrees, so if they stay sound and healthy we might see them again next year on the Derby trail.

The race everyone will be watching though will be the turf mile. Can the amazing Goldikova win it four years in a row???

Well, on filly Friday the stars of the show were Royal Delta, who won the Ladies' Classic, and the three previously undefeated two year olds who came in 1-2-3 in the Juvenile Fillies. Our Miss Aurelia cruised to victory in the Juvenile Fillies - she looks like the real deal - a potential huge star in the making.

One mare (Dynaslew) was taken from the track in the horse ambulance out of the Turf - but reports say she is only a little lame and very tired - and should be fine. Two others were scratched by the veterinarians as precautionary gestures pre-race. Better safe than sorry!!!

Incidentally, in this - the year that the great stallion AP Indy - Belmont and Breeders Cup Classic winning son of a Triple Crown winner in Seattle Slew and grandson of another in Secretariat via the great broodmare Weekend Surprise - retired from stud duties - five of the first six fillies/mares to finish in the Ladies Classic were granddaughters of AP Indy.

Royal Delta - out of the AP Indy mare Delta Princess
It's Tricky - daughter of AP Indy son Mineshaft
Pachattack - daughter of AP Indy son Pulpit
Ultra Blend - no relation
Plum Pretty - out of the AP Indy mare Liszy
Ask the Moon - daughter of AP Indy son Malibu Moon

In addition, the eighth place mare, Satan's Quick Chick, is a great granddaughter of AP Indy, being sired by Sky Mesa who was sired by Pulpit who was sired by AP Indy.

So you have one stallion being in the immediate pedigrees of all but three starters in one of the world's premiere races. That's pretty darned amazing when you think about it. Shows you the huge influence of not only AP Indy, but of the Bold Ruler bloodline (which produced both Seattle Slew and Secretariat).

Crazy day yesterday with lots of long shots winning. The dirt track was pretty nasty - it rained heavily all day on Thursday and the track was wet but not too bad on Friday. On Saturday it had sort of dried to a sticky gooey consistency in the inside lanes. The announcers kept comparing it to peanut butter...

As a result two horses had to be ambulanced off in the Marathon. One was a fine European mare who specializes in long distance races - we're talking two mile long graded races (but on the grass). her jockey pulled her up, and she was so exhausted they took her back to her barn in the ambulance. They say she will be fine. The other, A.U. Miner, broke down. He will be undergoing surgery in Lexington early next week. They have not given a prognosis on him as yet. May Epona look after him during his surgery and in the aftermath.

The great mare Goldikova was trapped on the rail in her race and bulled her way out for a third place finish. She clearly fouled other horses in doing so but the stewards kept her number on the board. I do not think anyone had the heart to deny her the place in her final race. May she visit the world's greatest stallions and pass on her genes for the betterment of the breed. The winner, Court Vision, was scheduled to be retired to stud in Canada at a very attractive price which would have included lifetime breeding rights for mare owners who bought certain packages for his first season. It will be interesting to see if his human connections follow through with these plans!

The Classic was a surprise. Game On Dude - a serious four year old who won the Santa Anita Handicap and missed the Hollywood Gold Cup by about an inch of his nose (both at a mile and a quarter) - led most of the way on an exhausting track. He was passed at the wire by last year's Belmont winner, Drosselmeyer. Coming in third was another closer - this year's Belmont winner Ruler on Ice. Havre de Grace came in fourth and Flat Out came in fifth. Flat Out's trainer said his horse was so exhausted he came back to his stall and lay down to sleep for hours, something he has never done before. It is no coincidence that two Belmont winners came in the three top finishes. the track was just... And I am left thinking once again that it is a shame Game On Dude is a gelding. He is a very rare horse in that he has a lot of speed and he can carry it for classic distances.

To me the star of the day was the two year old colt Hansen. This was only the third start of his life, his first start on dirt, and his first start in a graded stakes race. And he ran just off the rail in the nastiest part of the track. And he won against a seriously good colt in Union Rags, who had mostly run on a lane on the crown of the track, where it was dryer and faster. Union Rags ran a longer distance not being on the rail, but had better conditions to run on. Hansen was the only winner all day who led from start to finish on the dirt track - the heavy sticky exhausting track favored closers. I know people will think I am nuts but Hansen is a throw back to the Slew, IMHO. Front runner with speed that he can carry. He even has the Slew's "I am a horse god - you shall not pass" and "I am a horse god - back off puny humans" attitude. While the Slew was nearly black and Hansen is nearly white, he reminds me more of the Slew than any other colt I have seen in the AP Indy lines. Hansen is also bred top and bottom to get classic distances. His father is Tapit, son of Pulpit, son of AP Indy. His mother is a granddaughter of Storm Cat - the other world class sire out of a Secretariat mare.

Hopefully he and Union Rags will both stay sound and healthy and will get a good rivalry going as three year olds in the Triple Crown races. Both are breed for the classics, and both have seriously good talent.