Well, unfortunately more upsets in today's last two big Derby preps. I'm not sure there can even
be a true Derby favorite at this time, with so many upsets in so many major prep races.
In the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland a complete unknown and longshot named Brilliant Speed took the race by a head. He is a son of the literally man eating stallion Dynaformer (known to bite off the fingers of his grooms.
). He is bred along the same lines as the brilliant doomed Derby winner Barbaro - sired by Dynaformer out of a mare sired by a son of Mr. Prospector (Carson City as broodmare sire in Barbaro's case, Gone West as broodmare sire in Brilliant Speed's case).
In the Arkansas Derby The Factor was never a factor (though he will undoubtedly be a world class miler and/or sprinter) and the race was won by ArchArchArch, a son of the stallion named Arch, who also sired Blame, the only horse of either sex to ever defeat the great mare Zenyatta. With Arch as a sire, he will probably be able to go the Derby distance. The second place horse, Nehro, also came in second in the Louisiana Derby. He is very well bred and should have absolutely no problem with the distance - being by Mineshaft, a son of AP Indy, and being out of a mare by Afleet, grandsire of Afleet Alex who won the Preakness and the Belmont.
So crazy Derby picture. Tons of upset winners of major preps, one promising colt (Sweet Ducky) sold off to the Russians, lots of injuries to some of the most promising colts (Premiere Pegasus, To Honor and Serve, Arthur's Tale, Jaycito, Gourmet Dinner, etc). Some of the winners of major preps doing the same distance on the same track on the same day or a day apart from the fillies in their Oaks prep in much slower times than the girls...
I know which colt I like, but do not think he will have much of a chance, as he was a very late foal, and will be as much as six months younger some of the other horses in the field. As a matter of fact, he will not be three years old until the middle of June! His name is Macho Macho Man. He is a very large and well built colt - still growing into his frame and his ability. He won the last major prep for the Louisiana Derby and was a favorite for the Louisiana Derby. He somehow lost a shoe in the gate at the Louisiana Derby - the starters gave the shoe to his trainer after the race and it had flesh and fur on it.
But even on three shoes and a very sore foot he managed to finish third in a very gutsy and determined performance. On top of it, his trainer is someone who has had all sorts of difficult challenges in her life, including getting a heart transplant, but remains upbeat and appreciative of everything she has...
So then you have:
Florida trained/based/raced coltsDialed In
Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Uncle Mo (depending on recovery from illness)
Louisiana ColtsMucho Macho Man
Pants on Fire
Arkansas coltsArchArchArch
Nehro
California coltsJaycito (depending on recovery from hoof injury)
Midnight Interlude
Comma to the Top (serious distance concerns in pedigree, might not go to Derby, trainer is waffling back and forth)
New York ColtsToby's Corner
Wild CardsMaster of Hounds (a top Euro colt who might race in the Derby to avoid the great colt Frankel in an English classic)
Brilliant Speed - came out of nowhere today to win the Bluegrass
Many other borderline colts earnings wise who might make the gate in the Derby do to injuries to colts above them on the earnings list...
(Mine that Bird was one of these just a couple of years ago, so these colts DO have a chance if they make the field).
Then there are some very good colts coming back from injuries and will miss the Derby but are aiming for the Preakness or the Belmont. Astrology and Arthur's Tale - both of the AP Indy line and bred for distance are two of them.