Ahira's Hangar

The colts have been having a carnage of injuries lately, including my Derby colt (the regally bred Premiere Pegasus) and my two Belmont horses (Jaycito and Arthur's Tale).

In an interesting twist, the second best colt in Europe (Master of Hounds) might be coming over for the Kentucky Derby in order to duck out of a European three year classic and facing the Euro supercolt Frankel.

The two year old champion - and most dominating two year old in America since the immortal Seattle Slew - Uncle Mo - is having a pedestrian three year old season amidst rumors of secret surgery following the Breeder's Cup and following a lackluster third place finish in the Wood Memorial and is no longer the Derby favorite.

The current Derby favorite is a colt named Dialed In, son of Mineshaft who is in turn the son of the great stallion AP Indy (Belmont and Breeder's Cup Classic winner, son of Seattle Slew and maternal grandson of Secretariat). His mother comes from a strong female bloodline, too! He won the Florida Derby - but in a significantly slower time than R Heat Lightning and the fillies ran in the Oaks the day before.

All eyes will be on the Arkansas Derby this weekend when a potential freakishly good colt named The Factor will be trying nine furlongs for the first time. If he does well, he might well be the new Derby favorite, even though he is bred to be a sprinter. He might be the fastest horse in the world - he broke a track record going back to the 1970's (set by Spectacular Bid) when he broke his maiden at Santa Anita and challenges records every time he sets foot on the track - but so far his trainer has not asked him to go farther than 1 1/16 mile - when he won the Rebel Stakes in a good time while leading a good field the whole way in a hand ride. To see him run is a thing of beauty - he stretches out effortlessly and floats over the ground without a wasted motion.


The fillies look to be a much more interesting bunch this year. Lots of good ones - like last year with the exception of the injured colt Eskendereya it looks like the filly crop might be a lot better than the colt crop. (Depending on whether or not The Factor can carry his speed for a distance). Lots of standouts - Lilacs and Lace, Turbulent Descent, Plum Pretty, Kathmanblu, R Heat Lightning, Joyful Victory, Zazu, Dancinginherdreams, Summer Soiree, and Arienza are all stakes winners or placers worth keeping a close eye on! In fact R Heat Lightning would be one of the Derby favorites were she to run for the roses rather the lilies....

Turns out that Uncle Mo was ill when he ran that bad race in the Wood Memorial. He is now on a course of antibiotics for a gastrointestinal infection, and they are taking a wait and see approach on running him in the Derby or waiting for the Preakness. I am glad that his poor race has been explained! He was a really good two year old - I was hoping he would turn out to be the superstar racing needs following the retirements of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta...

One more day to see if The Factor can carry his blazing speed for 1 1/8 miles!

Well, unfortunately more upsets in today's last two big Derby preps. I'm not sure there can even be a true Derby favorite at this time, with so many upsets in so many major prep races.

In the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland a complete unknown and longshot named Brilliant Speed took the race by a head. He is a son of the literally man eating stallion Dynaformer (known to bite off the fingers of his grooms. ). He is bred along the same lines as the brilliant doomed Derby winner Barbaro - sired by Dynaformer out of a mare sired by a son of Mr. Prospector (Carson City as broodmare sire in Barbaro's case, Gone West as broodmare sire in Brilliant Speed's case).

In the Arkansas Derby The Factor was never a factor (though he will undoubtedly be a world class miler and/or sprinter) and the race was won by ArchArchArch, a son of the stallion named Arch, who also sired Blame, the only horse of either sex to ever defeat the great mare Zenyatta. With Arch as a sire, he will probably be able to go the Derby distance. The second place horse, Nehro, also came in second in the Louisiana Derby. He is very well bred and should have absolutely no problem with the distance - being by Mineshaft, a son of AP Indy, and being out of a mare by Afleet, grandsire of Afleet Alex who won the Preakness and the Belmont.

So crazy Derby picture. Tons of upset winners of major preps, one promising colt (Sweet Ducky) sold off to the Russians, lots of injuries to some of the most promising colts (Premiere Pegasus, To Honor and Serve, Arthur's Tale, Jaycito, Gourmet Dinner, etc). Some of the winners of major preps doing the same distance on the same track on the same day or a day apart from the fillies in their Oaks prep in much slower times than the girls...

I know which colt I like, but do not think he will have much of a chance, as he was a very late foal, and will be as much as six months younger some of the other horses in the field. As a matter of fact, he will not be three years old until the middle of June! His name is Macho Macho Man. He is a very large and well built colt - still growing into his frame and his ability. He won the last major prep for the Louisiana Derby and was a favorite for the Louisiana Derby. He somehow lost a shoe in the gate at the Louisiana Derby - the starters gave the shoe to his trainer after the race and it had flesh and fur on it. But even on three shoes and a very sore foot he managed to finish third in a very gutsy and determined performance. On top of it, his trainer is someone who has had all sorts of difficult challenges in her life, including getting a heart transplant, but remains upbeat and appreciative of everything she has...


So then you have:
Florida trained/based/raced colts
Dialed In
Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Uncle Mo (depending on recovery from illness)

Louisiana Colts
Mucho Macho Man
Pants on Fire

Arkansas colts
ArchArchArch
Nehro

California colts
Jaycito (depending on recovery from hoof injury)
Midnight Interlude
Comma to the Top (serious distance concerns in pedigree, might not go to Derby, trainer is waffling back and forth)

New York Colts
Toby's Corner


Wild Cards
Master of Hounds (a top Euro colt who might race in the Derby to avoid the great colt Frankel in an English classic)
Brilliant Speed - came out of nowhere today to win the Bluegrass

Many other borderline colts earnings wise who might make the gate in the Derby do to injuries to colts above them on the earnings list... (Mine that Bird was one of these just a couple of years ago, so these colts DO have a chance if they make the field).

Then there are some very good colts coming back from injuries and will miss the Derby but are aiming for the Preakness or the Belmont. Astrology and Arthur's Tale - both of the AP Indy line and bred for distance are two of them.

So the star European colt Master of Hounds will be coming over after all, following a big win by Frankel in his three year old debut in England:



Here is the all important earnings list, already weeded out for known injuries. There are still question marks on the list - Jaycito is getting over a minor hoof injury, Astrology is being pointed for the Preakness rather than the Derby (he got a late start this season due to having surgery at the end of his two year old season) - The Factor and JP's Gusto and Comma to the Top all have serious stamina concerns in their pedigrees and performances and might not run in the Derby. Uncle Mo - with his GI infection - who knows? This is the widest open Derby I think I can ever remember. Every colt making the gate can have a case made for him!

In looking over your post of the 16th, Duchess, I am amazed to not see any Kentucky-bred colts listed...

They are nearly all Kentucky breds - even the European colt Master of Hounds was bred in Kentucky, though of very regal French bloodlines including the great champion French mare Miesque, who was his grandma.

But Kentucky - for who knows what foolish reason - does not do a good job of supporting the horse industry through breeding incentives, training incentives, large purses, or the like. These days many horses are conceived in Kentucky but born elsewhere - in states such as PA or NY - so they can be counted on as being "bred" in that state and be eligible for a lot of extra money when they run on tracks in that state.

And Florida still has a big horse breeding industry based in Ocala. Some stallions get their start in Florida, and when they sire a lot of winners are moved to Kentucky. Or get their start in a more obscure place and are moved to Florida (this happened to the stallion who sired last year's champion two year old filly Awesome Feather who is currently out with an injury - he was moved from Oklahoma to Florida. On the other hand, a leading sire from Florida named Congrats was moved to Kentucky).

A lot of these colts and fillies are trained and based in Florida, California, or Louisiana in the winter, running on the tracks in those states. As the spring comes in you start to see them migrating north or east bit by bit to places like Arkansas and New Mexico. Later in the spring they move to Kentucky and Delaware and then in the summer to New York and New Jersey and Ontario. There is also a hard core group of horsemen who train year round on the New York tracks - though heaven knows why when they could be in sunny Florida or California.

In this case when I was listing the states I was listing where the colts were primarily raced, based, and trained. For whatever reason this year the Florida based colts seemed to come out physically better (less injuries to the top performers) than in California, which was absolutely decimated.

One of the weirdest Derby years I can ever remember - with the field shaping up you can make a case both for and against every single colt. There will probably be no clear cut favorite. Master of Hounds is a wonderful colt (even though they are bringing him to the US to duck the supercolt Frankel) but he has never run on dirt, with all of his races on grass or plastics. With his French bloodlines you would assume he is a natural grass runner - but his father did sire a Belmont winner in Lemon Drop Kid so who knows? A couple of the other colts have also never performed well on dirt, being stakes winners on poly. It's just nuts. I actually think that some of the fillies such as R Heat Lightning, Zazu, and Plum Pretty would all have better chances to win than most of these colts.

That's not saying that all of these colts suck, even though some of the best are out injured. Many of them are products of AP Indy and his sons and his grandsons and his daughters. That means that they will probably not hit their physical maturity and peak until sometime in the summer...

Well, the field for the Kentucky Oaks was announced today! The favorite (who would have probably also been the favorite for the Derby had she been entered there), R Heat Lightning, is out with a sore knee (shades of MsMary!!).


Some fillies to keep an eye on:
Joyful Victory - beautiful gray daughter of outstanding young sire (and grandson of AP Indy) Tapit - should relish a longer distance

Zazu - another beautiful gray daughter of Tapit - who should also relish a longer distance

Tapit is very unusual in the Seattle Slew lineage in that he is one of the very few grays and very few siring grays. The Slew tested for homogenous black color genes, and most of his offspring and most of their offspring are dark bays and browns (the brown comes form the agouti gene, which overcomes the black).

Kathmanblu - a Cinderella story of sorts, the daughter of a very small breeder's only broodmare! yet another filly descended from the great sire AP Indy who should relish a longer race (her sire Bluegrass Cat ran second in his Derby and is the son of an AP Indy mare) - and the h in her name is silent so it is "cat", not "kath"

Plum Pretty - might be the one to really watch if it comes up rainy on Friday. Her sire is Medaglio d'Oro, who had his greatest victories in the mud - as did MDO's great daughter Rachel Alexandra. Out of an AP Indy mare, this is yet another filly who should relish a longer race.

Like the Derby, the Oaks field is decided by earnings in graded stakes races, so all of the fillies are of high quality and you cannot count any of them out, especially with R Heat Lightning out of the race. Unlike the Derby the field is restricted to 14 - a much saner number of participants.

The 2011 Kentucky Oaks!

Really exciting race with Plum Pretty winning over a rapidly closing St. John's River. Zazu was third and Joyful Victory was fourth.

This is the year when the great sire and Belmont winner AP Indy was pensioned due to infertility (he covered 25 mares but got none of them in foal). Indy is a living link to some of the greatest horses who ever lived - sired by one Triple Crown winner in the great sire of sires Seattle Slew and grandsired by another in the great broodmare sire Secretariat. You cannot get more royal than that!

It is fitting then that three of the top four finishers in the Kentucky Oaks descend from AP Indy (and the other filly, St John's River descends from his sire Seattle Slew). Plum Pretty's dam is an AP Indy mare; Zazu and Joyful Victory are daughters of the young top sire Tapit (son of top sire Pulpit, son of the great sire of sires AP Indy).

And speaking of great young sires, how about Medaglio d'Oro? He has only three crops of foals who have reached age three - and in two of those three crops he has sired a Kentucky Oaks winner! and you figure that the really top mares would not have gone to him until after his first crop turned three, and contained the all time great Rachel Alexandra. So those top mares would have been bred to him in 2010, and their foals are only yearlings now. In two years they will be three year olds, and may the racing world tremble at their coming! I tell you, as much as I love the AP Indy lines with all of their historic weight - if there is another Triple Crown winner in my lifetime I think he or with this stallion she will be coming from MDO. (Maybe it will be Rachel Alexandra's little full sister, born this year in Kentucky - she looks so much like Rachel it is uncanny! ).

One of the greatest sires to ever stand in Europe (though Kentucky born and bred) was the recently deceased Sadler's Wells. His sons in Europe such as the great champion Galileo are now top stallions and carrying their blood and heritage on to future generations of champions. One good son of his - El Prado - eventually made it back to America where he became a top stallion until his death. Two of his best still on the track are the four year old grass star colt Paddy O'Prado and the three year old grass star filly Winter Memories - both beautiful grays who run on the grass like their papa. But one of his best sons - a dark bay who ran on dirt - was MDO. And so now his (and his father Sadler's Wells) great bloodlines are carried on through his best American son.

May Indy's male descendants do as well in the Derby tomorrow as the females did in the Oaks today!

If I had bet on the Oaks (note, that I am not a betting/gambling person) it would have been some combos of Plum Pretty, Kathmanblu, Zazu, and Joyful Victory. I would have done pretty well other than with Kathmanblu.

I have no freaking clue who to bet on in the Derby. It might be the most wide open race I have ever seen.

The Derby was won by a colt with high quality overseas bloodlines named Animal Kingdom. His sirelines come from South America and his dam lines come from Europe. He is bred to literally run all day, and will hopefully be a stand out on dirt, grass, and synthetics from here on out. All of his previous races were on surfaces other than dirt and his bloodlines scream turf horse, so a lot of people overlooked him today going into the race.

Only one AP Indy line colt finished in the money - Nehro, who came in second. He is a son of Mineshaft, a horse of the year son of AP Indy.

Mucho Macho Man came in third. I still think that colt will be a monster by late summer/fall. He was the largest colt in the race and months younger than most of the field (he will not actually be three until after the Belmont). Once he grows into his big body he will be a force to be reckoned with!

Unfortunately the Derby was marred by a leg fracture to a very nice colt named ArchArchArch, who had won the Arkansas Derby in his last race. It is expected to not be life threatening, but do not be surprised if the colt is retired. He would make a nicely priced alternative to breeders who want blood from the stallion Arch and cannot afford to breed to either Arch or Arch's best son, Breeder's Cup winner Blame.

So it will be on to Pimlico for the Black Eyed Susans and the Preakness. Maybe some of the good colts who missed the Derby and fillies who missed the Oaks due to minor injuries will make it back to the track by then!

And let us all cross our fingers and hope they find out what is wrong with Uncle Mo.

The same trainer as Mo had a standout filly last year named Devil May Care, who came in tenth in the Derby and won some of the three year old filly grade one stakes races in New York. Very nice filly. She ran very poorly in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga so they ran medical tests on her and found she had hepatitis on unknown origin. They treated her for that for a while, but she was really not doing well, so they ran a bunch further tests and discovered the poor girl had underlying cancer. She had to be humanely euthanized this week.

Now Mo is simply not doing well and his blood tests are showing issues (though obviously no one but his owner and trainer and vets know what the tests are showing). Supposedly the vets have not been able to diagnose the problem, but the blood labs are alarming enough to not run him in the Derby. Let us all pray for this beautiful and talented colt - that they can figure out what is wrong, and that they can treat it and get him well and healthy.

Field for the Black-Eyed Susans:


The two favorites look to be the class of the field; no Oaks fillies will run for the Susans this year.

The Preakness field is shaping up; Master of Hounds and Nehro - both deep closers with plenty of stamina in their pedigrees look like they might wait for the Belmont. A world class sprinter in Flashpoint will be added to the field. This will make the pace very fast and might mess things up for the Derby winner. The Derby was run like a turf race - very slow early pace in the race with everyone closing at the end. It was the slowest first half in the race in decades and the fastest last half mile since Secretariat and Sham ran the two fastest Derbies ever (unfortunately for Sham he ran the second fastest time ever, but it was in Secretariat's year). This set things up perfectly for Animal Kingdom and his heavy turf pedigree. The Preakness will be his great test in that it might be a very fast pace from the gate to the wire.

In most years the Belmont is the great test and defeats many would-be Triple Crowners - Animal Kingdom with his sturdy stamina laden German damlines should have no problem with the Belmont - the Preakness might well be a different story.

The Preakness has added a mascot this year - a strange beast called Kegasus to draw in the college age crowd to the infield. From the waist up it is a frat boy with a beer gut. From the waist down it is a female horse!!

The Preakness field:


One of the good colts coming back from injury - Astrology - has made the field.

Let us all hope that Animal Kingdom does well - he is bred to run the Belmont distance, so if he can win the Preakness we might see some thing very special come June!

And it might mean fresh infusions of healthy overseas bloodlines for American horses - and outcrosses to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector are highly desirable. There are less than a handful of major stallions left in Kentucky without ND or MP blood - and one of them (Holy Bull) is reaching an age where his fertility could go at any time.

A big beautiful filly named Royal Delta won the Black Eyed Susans today. She is a daughter of Belmont winner Empire Maker and her mother is an AP Indy mare. This filly looks very good with a lot of upside - she and Plum Pretty should make some good races this year if they meet up in any of the filly classics in New York this summer - and both can make their newly retired grandsire AP Indy proud!

Well, I was worried about how Animal Kingdom would handle the faster pace in the Preakness...and he did well to come in a fast charging second, but could not overtake the winner, front running Shackleford. I have to give the Shack a lot of credit, though - in the first half of the race he managed to keep up with a world class sprinter in Flashpoint, and was able to hold off both Astrology and Animal Kingdom at the end of the race.

Speaking of poor Flashpoint, he came in dead last, and rumor has it he was seen in his stall later on, head hanging down in exhaustion.

You know, we have had three very promising sprinters on the Triple Crown Trail this year. The Factor needed minor surgery for his breathing after the Arkansas Derby and then was injured prepping for the Kentucky Derby and is now being quite sensibly aimed at the King's Bishop (a big grade I sprint for three year olds at Saratoga). Comma to the Top was injured in the Kentucky Derby and is now being prepped for fall sprints - his humans mentioned possibly going for the Breeder's Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile. Now Flashpoint has been exhausted in the Preakness - and is hopefully not injured.

Why the heck do owners keep doing this to their colts year after year after year? Why do they ask of their sprinters to try to make classic distances? Drives me nuts.

Some colts just are not suited to run classic distances on dirt tracks. And there is nothing wrong with aiming towards the King's Bishop (sprint) or the Virginia Derby (1 1/4 miles on the grass) instead!!! Why take the chance of ruining a potential champion sprinter or turf horse with this silliness?

Some of these owners need to get their owned damned egos out of the way and think about the well being of their horses!

Really nice filly up in Canada, just won their most important race of the year for three year old fillies, might go in their most important race for three year old colts later this summer!

Last year we did not have a single colt or filly hardy enough to start in all three Triple Crown races. This year it looks like three colts will start in all three races - Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, and Much Macho Man. The first won the Derby, the second won the Preakness, and the third is a potential monster in the making who will not have hit his third birthday yet by the Belmont. MMM has lost a front shoe in two of the his last three starts (the Louisiana Derby and the Preakness) so they will be going with glued on shoes this time! Two very good colts who did well in the Derby but did not start in the Preakness will be coming back in the Belmont - Nehro and Master of Hounds. Master of Hounds and Animal Kingdom are both bred to go the distance - in fact in Europe they are expecting MOH to compete in two mile long classic races later in his career! So the Belmont should be fun this year!

One of the most exciting Belmonts of all time:



That's three generations of Belmont winners right there - Seattle Slew to AP Indy to Rags to Riches.

her grandsire:


her sire: