Ahira's Hangar

Today, the day after my birthday, marks the beginning of NFL fans 'most wonderful time of the year'. Most training camps are getting into full swing and last minute trades, pickups, arbitration and other Tomfoolery are underfoot. So before I start this season's research I'll just throw a bunch of thoughts up in the air. Let's get the Tomfoolery out of the way as quickly as possible: Rookie WR Dez Bryant refused to carry Roy William pads in Dallas, then says he was unaware of the tradition. Yeah right, give me a break, even I wouldn't carry Williams' pads, Miles Austin's maybe. Could be Tony Romo's year, if Felix Jones is featured Boyz could be a contender--their defense looks pretty tough. Big mean Albert Haynesworth is, supposedly, finally, a 'happy camper' in DC, Donovan McNabb is a very interesting switch at QB, but who are his WRers and who can actually run out the door of the old folks home featuring Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and, maybe, Brian Westbrook? We shall see, maybe 500? And of course the other big baby of preseason is, perennially, Brett (fing) 4avre- which basically is: "The ankle's doing fine, I'm practicing with the kids, I'll show up to camp when a dam sure feel like it-I've got you by the balls Childress."

Some people perceive "The Cincinnati Circus" as Tomfoolery but I don't. I see TO opposite 85 as beneficial to all aspects of the Bengal's game-just take a Jets game as an example: if Darrelle Revis covers Ocho, Owens can go nuts. Carson Palmer's value goes up, Cedric Benson can run, cats might win 9 games this year. More Tomfoolery, but he basically did it to himself, I'm sure you know that Ben Roethelisberger has been suspended for six games. Charlie Batch isn't too bad at QB and Rashard Mendenhall is a monster, but like Washington I don't really see many receivers, unless Hines Ward has his typical 'every three years' breakout-but he is getting old-Steelers will be lucky to break 500. So where did Santonio Holmes go? To J-E-T-S who look like a very exciting team this year:Holmes and Braylon Edwards are an average to decent duo, Shonn Greene and, I'm not kidding (at least for this year), LaDainian Tomlinson could be an effective 1-2 punch at RB and QB Mark Sanchez can only improve. New York's already wicked D has been bolstered by the additions of Antonio Cromartie, Jason Taylor and others. So that depletes San Diego right? Not really, unless San Diego depletes itself. I don't think they lose a beat at CB with Antoine Cason filling in for Cromartie and, for his time at SD, LT was pretty much done. Bolts could do themselves in if they don't do something to stop Vincent Jackson from holding out (through his suspension) until week ten and don't resign OT Marcus McNeill right now. Malcolm Floyd is no VJax but he should have a breakout year and with rookie Ryan Matthews at RB, Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers they'll still be a good offensive team-defensively they have a lot of work to do and still have a couple of gaping holes in their secondary. Chargers should win their division simply because the competition stinks.

I'll, probably, gab about the upper echelon QBs and their teams next time, like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

If we, presumably, list the 5-8 QBs as Romo, Rivers, Palmer and Favre (some would argue that Houston's Matt Schaub, McNabb, Chicago's Jay Cutler or Baltimore's Joey Flacco should replace Palmer and/or Favre on that list), then we're left with P. Manning, Brees, Brady and Rodgers as the top 4. I'm of the small camp that disagrees with Rodgers being up there (I think he's equal to Rivers this year) and, maybe, even Brady do to injuries and a weird little thing called the PUP. PUP stands for the physically unable to preform list which most football fans can never totally understand. In Wes Welker's case, he's coming back from the same type of injury Brady tried to come back from last year, it means he can semi-practice and workout without pads and get all the PT he needs but he can be activated anytime during training camp that the Patriots feel like it. I think if you're put on the PUP somewhere around the end of training camp you're not, exactly, cut but your slot opens up for another player and that, with a two week league clearance (and a player being dropped), you can then rejoin the team--but I'm still confused on the whole deal.

Still, Welker's injury is tough to come back from, it might be a little easier for a WR than a QB, but it typically takes two years. Tom Brady's now fully recovered, but his top 4 ranking is totally dependent on a healthy Welker, after Randy Moss there's not much left in the NE offensive tank. Sammy Morris has shown flashes of brilliance, but is plagued by aging-possible injury-and too many other guys in the backfield: Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the ancient warhorse Fred Taylor. Yes together they all put up a decent number, but two key injuries can kill them. If Welker can't preform the other fossil on the Pat's bench, Tory Holt, ain't gonna bail him out, and their TE? Don't make me laugh. On the brighter side of the PUP is Marques Colston-he's little banged up and didn't pass the first psychical , but he's done this before and bounced back just fine, Because of receivers like Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meacham I'm tempted to place Drew Brees at the 1 spot, slight over Peyton-TEs and RBs factor into this decision too: Pierre Thomas, (the sometimes injured) Reggie Bush and Lynell Halmiton seem much more of a force, to me, than Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Granted, the Colts match up pretty dam well at WR with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and (prodigy struggling to get back in the lineup) Anthony Gonzalez and with the fact that Jeremy Shockey eats Dallas Clark's shorts at TE, I'd still give a slight edge to Brees.

So, after that lengthy and incomprehensible tirade, where does that leave Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the wannabes? (If you've been following our Picks Games and my other writings over the years you've probably seen players I diss a lot, like Addai, Rogers and Morris come back to bite me in the ass at the most inopportune times... ) Anyway, like Welker the player that, probably, makes or breaks Rodgers this year is Donald Driver. Driver underwent arthroscopic surgery on both knees during the offseason and even though the Packers say he'll be fine I see him missing a step, falling short of 1000 yards and 4 TDs at the most. With the new formations on the O-line expect Greg Jennings to have a much better year, and if anything serious happens to Driver James Jones is a very capable back up (there's just nothing left after that). Speaking of nothing left-there really isn't anything after RB Ryan Grant, his health is going to determine just how far Green Bay goes this year. There might be two reasons why I see Rodgers swaying back and forth between #3 and 5: one is the force of Drivers and Jones the other is TE Jermichael Finley who has a potential to become a superstar this year.

Next: Why didn't I mention Matt Ryan, will Flacco thrive with Boldin even tho the D is slowly falling apart, what have I got against Eli and why does the Tebow hype make me sick?

Slightly off topic question for Danlo:

Do you think there will be NFL football in 2011 or not? I keep hearing rumors of...not.

I haven't looked into the situation enough to be able to answer your question, duchy. I do know that Commissioner Goodell is already doing everything he can with the owners to prevent a work stoppage from happening.

The Servicable 7

While I'm, obviously, rather puzzled that ESPN is ranking Palmer in their lower 10, right now, I'm, kind of, equally perturbed that they rank Houston's QB Matt Schaub #5. Yes he's very good, if healthy, and his main target is the incredible Andre Johnson, yet (I noticed I used "but" too much in my last "blog") I don't see much overall backup behind him. There's no doubt that Owen Daniel's is a top 5 TE, but he's still rehabbing a wicked knee injury from last season and Kevin Walter is a bottom 3 WR who perennially drivers Fantasy players nuts with, really, no one behind him. At RB there's, suddenly, another 3 headed beast featuring the fumbling Steve Slaton, reliable Ryan Moats (who's not really thrown to) and the highly touted rookie Ben Tate. I'm not that familiar with Tate's receiving skills, but Slaton can catch the ball, so there's a little more hope. Can Schaub hit another 4770 yards this year? I seriously doubt it, should I have ranked him above Rivers, probably... So I guess #10 on my list is Baltimore's Joey Flacco. If Anquan Boldin and Derick Mason can remain healthy (and not retire or have mouths bashed in) and Michael Clayton can get off the disabled list before the season starts Flacco might make it up to #8. But, that would also have to include TE Todd Heap having his second decent season in a row, and I just don't see that happening. Ray Rice certainly adds to those numbers, and his formidable running skills will keep the competition off balance.

Next, like E. Manning, is my "buddy" Jay Cutler of da Bears. Cutler has his personal problems of running around too much, forcing the ball and being a baby but he has a ton of tools at his disposal, if he can stay erect. One of the most exciting, developing, players last year was Johnny Knox and he looks to lead a wicked trio that includes Earl Bennett and Devin Hester. That's somewhat of a difficult arsenal to manage as you're looking at a lot of speed and long balls. RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen are supposedly both healthy and looking good in practice, so far, and Chester Taylor has proven hands for a RB. I don't know much about Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb, I don't know if anyone's really seen enough of him, but, given his opportunity and weapons he could be a real sleeper this year. The same mystique, sort of, surrounds RB Le Sean McCoy (you, actually, have a chance to do pretty well if you take these two in a deep Fantasy Football League). McCoy could break 1000 yard rushing and 500 yards receiving then you only have (if their little tweaks don't get them) DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason ('hands of glue") Avant downfield and Brett (freakin') Celek at TE. I hate to sound geeky but that's sort of like James T. Kirk inheriting the Enterprise from Christopher Pike> see ya Donovan!

Now it, somewhat, gets down to the riff-raff and yeah maybe someone like Favre should drop down here and maybe not. So what's the pool that comprises the last three? Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and McNabb? At least that coincides with Rotowire... I'll keep McNabb at the bottom of my list and you saw my take on the Skinz above. Atlanta's Matt Ryan is a hard one to call this year: sure he has the very capable Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez, however Michael Jenkins is battling a shoulder injury and many don't see him scoring that many TDs. Not much help afterwords as, a much healthier, Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood aren't known for catching the ball. Finally, Eli, (he's another that will come back to bite me in the ass) yes I should have ranked him close to or above Kolb, but once again my personal feelings got in the way. His prime receivers: Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are all very good, very young and getting better every year and Kevin Boss is no slouch at TE but, like Atlanta, RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw aren't known for their hands either.

So ESPN ranks Eli #10, so sue me. Finally two QBs that may surprise you and one that shouldn't: (why am I not mentioning Matt Cassell? I don't know) Alex Smith, Chad Henne and Big Ben. SF could go a long way this year if Alex Smith screws his head on properly, and this is, probably, his last chance to do so--nothing wrong with Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan and TE Vernon Davis (nothing wrong with drafting Davis in FF this year, either). RB Frank Gore can catch and Niners D is looking better and better. Miami's Chad Henne's value simply increases because he has Brandon Marshall and don't be surpised if Pittsburgh's Ben Roethelisberger comes back off suspension and makes second half superstars of Hines Ward, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller.

Top 10 Tight Ends (copy of my blurb on Fantasy Fanatics)

I've done is compiled Rotowire, ESPN, CBS, NFL and Yahoo!'s "rankings" and altered them a little bit. How do you assess them?

1: Antonio Gates SD
Three of the 5 sites ranked Dallas Clark #1 and these two guys were listed 1 & 2 nine out 10 times. Since I'm prejudiced Gates gets top billing. (most receiving yards '09)
2: Dallas Clark IND
3: Vernon Davis SF (most TDs '09)
4: Brent Celek PHI
Yes, I was surprised too...
5: Jermichael Finley GB
6: Jason Witten DAL
Finley and Witten were dead even at 29 points
7: Tony Gonzalez ATL
8: Kellen Winslow TB
9: Owen Daniels TEX
10: Zach Miller OAK
Finishing very close: Visanthe Shiancoe MIN, Chris Cooley WAS and Greg Olsen CHI

Top 10 WRs---a generic compilation (as compared to Fantasy Fanatics rankings)

This time I substituted Fox for NFL (which is sort of CBS in disguise, anyway) and made a composite along with Rotowire, ESPN, CBS and Yahoo! Some of the rankings made me scratch my head like; Fox picking Fitz #1 while he didn't even make CBS's top ten, Fox ranking Welker #8 was weird too. Compare this to Fantasy Fanatics', current, composite.

1. Andre Johnson-Schaub TEX
2. Randy Moss-Brady NE
3. Larry Fitzgerald-Lienhart AZ
4. Reggie Wayne-P. Manning IND
5. Calvin Johnson-Stafford DET
6. Miles Austin-Romo DAL
7. Brandon Marshall-Henne MIA
8. Roddy White-Ryan ATL
9. Steve Smith-Moore CAR
10. DeSean Jackson-Kolb PHI
Colston was a clear 11 and Boldin was mentioned

Fanatics:
A. Johnson
R. Moss
L. Fitzgerald
M. Austin
C. Johnson
R. Wayne
B. Marshall
R. White
G. Jennings-Rogers GB
D. Jackson
Rice, Colston and Smith (CAR) also mentioned

Looks like they match up pretty well. My next blurb, on #2 WRs, will be much more difficult and a heck of a lot more controversial.

WRs 11-36 Your possible 2nd and 3rd picks

It's still way too early. But here are some options IF you had to draft your second and third receivers right now. If you're in a 12 team league picking Marques Colston and Sidney Rice as the 11th and 12th #1 wouldn't be a bad idea. This is sort of a compilation between Fantasy Fantics rankings and Mock Draft Central's current Average Draft Positions with a little more sway given to MDC.

11. Marques Colston-Brees NO
12. Sydney Rice-Favre MIN

13. Chad Ochocinco-Palmer CIN
14. Anquan Boldin-Flacco BAL
15. Steven Smith-E. Manning NYG
16. Mike Sims-Walker-Garrard JAX
17. Michael Crabtree-Smith SF
18. Donald Driver-Rogers GB
19. Hines Ward-Batch/Roethelisberger PIT
20. Robert Meachem-Brees NO
it starts to get a little fuzzy after this but...
21. Malcomb Floyd-Rivers SD
22. Santana Moss-McNabb WAS
23. Wes Welker-Brady NE
24. T.J. Houshmandzadeh-Hasslebeck SEA

25. Dez Bryant-Romo DAL
26. Vincent Jackson-Rivers SD
27. Haakeem Nicks-E. Manning NYG
28. Jeremy Maclin-Kolb PHI
29. Steve Breaston-Lienhart AZ
30. Dwayne Bowe-Cassel KC
31. Braylon Edwards-Sanchez NYG
32. P. Harvin-Favre MIN
33. Terrell Owens-Palmer CIN
34. J. Knox-Cutler CHI
35. K. Britt-Young TEN
36. D. Aromashodu-Cutler CHI

I think that's a, somewhat, fair list with close to a month still to go though Ward may be a little high for my tastes, I never like TJH being ranked above 25 and remember that V. Jackson may be out as much as 10 weeks. I'm surprised Bowe is listed so low, I'd put him 23, I'd also place Knox 28 and, of course, Welker can easily rise higher depending how he comes back from injury. I don't see any glaring omissions except Eddie Royal, Derek Mason, Donnie Avery, Anthony Gonzalez or Chaz Schilens.

Top 25 RBs---a generic compilation (as compared to our rankings)

Whew, this one was tough!!! Again I compiled Rotowire, CBS, Fox, ESPN and Yahoo!'s current rankings-compare Fantasy Fanatics' rankings below...

1. Chris Johnson TEN (usdisputed)
2. Adrian Peterson MIN
3. Maurice Jones-Drew JAX
4. Ray Rice BAL
5. Michael Turner ATL
6. Frank Gore SF
7. Steven Jackson STL
8. Ryan Mathews SD
9. Shonn Greene NYJ
10. Rashard Mendenhall PIT
11. DeAngelo Williams CAR
12. Cedric Benson CIN
13. Ryan Grant GB
14. Pierre Thomas NO
15. Chris Wells AZ
16. Jamaal Charles KC
17. Jonathan Stewart CAR
18. Knowshon Moreno DEN
19. Joseph Addai IND
20. LeSean MCCoy PHI
21. Brandon Jacobs NYG
22. Jahvid Best DET
23. Ronnie Brown MIA
24. Matt Forte CHI
25. Felix Jones DAL
also mentioned: R. Bush, M. Bush, Barber, R. Williams, Forsett, Spiller

Fanatics:
C. Johnson
A. Peterson
M. Jones-Drew
R. Rice
F. Gore
S. Jackson
M. Turner
R. Grant
R. Mathews
D. Williams

S. Greene
R. Mendenhall
C. Benson
J. Charles
P. Thomas
L. McCoy
K. Moreno
J. Stewart
C. Wells
J. Addai

M. Forte
A. Foster
J. Best
R. Brown
F. Jones
also mentioned: Harrison, C. Williams, Jacobs R. Williams, Spiller

Top 12 D/ST-a generic compilation

It's a little bit all over the place and this compilation is, perhaps the fuzziest after the top 5. This time I used ESPN, CBS, Fox, Rotowire and Mock Draft Central's current rankings (or ADP), Rotowire was, markedly, the most, um... "unorthodox" listing Pittsburgh #2, San Francisco #4 and Dallas #13. Anyway, this is, pretty much, how it fleshed out:

1. New York Jets (I guess a lot depends on Revis too..) MDC had the Jets at the 102 ADP and tons of Ds were drafted 121--128
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. San Francisco FortyNiners
9. New York Giants
10. Chicago Bears
11. San Diego Chargers
12. Miami Dolphins

A lot to discuss...

Exhausted after 3 Fantasy Football drafts. Our Fanatics 14 Man Brawl was a bitch--my starters are great, but my bench really stinks.
Eli Manning QB
Frank Gore RB
Brandon Jacobs RB
Brandon Marshall WR
Steve Smith (Giants) WR
Michael Crabtree WR
Tony Gonzalez TE
Mario Manningham flex
Vikings D

for 3WRs PPR not bad...I won't go into the rest...ack

So what's new as we quickly approach? Brett's playing, but his favorite target, Sidney Rice is out 6 games. We' re still on the Vincent Jackson watch until Friday, but it doesn't look good at all. Derrick Ward has been cut by Tampa Bay and Matt Lienhart is either being let go or traded any day.